Pipe Hitters

Aug. 18th, 2025 08:10 pm
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Posted by Seyward Darby

In the most righteously angry book review you’ll read this week—year?—Grayson Scott considers two new releases about the legacy of America’s 21st-century wars, with a focus on the role of special operators. First up, To Lose a War: The Fall and Rise of the Taliban by Jon Lee Anderson:

When Anderson parachutes in for a story, he tends to land in a rich guy’s backyard. At the opening of his book The Fall of Baghdad, another series of essays written in-country before and during an occupation, he makes sure to tell us exactly how the exiled Sunni sheikh he is talking to is related to the prophet Muhammad. He loves hanging out with Saddam’s plastic surgeon, even after he acknowledged that the man has started avoiding him for his own safety in the last days of Baathism. (It had become inadvisable for Saddam’s associates to advertise their whereabouts, even to American reporters.) In Afghanistan, he interviews President Hamid Karzai, and even minor warlords like Daoud Khan and Mullah Naquib qualify as celebrities. If success in journalism is a question of access, then Anderson deserves this third payday (most of these essays were originally written for The New Yorker; many of those gathered here are also collected in a 2002 book called The Lion’s Grave).

Despite all his important friends, Anderson still missed the biggest story of the war, though this isn’t to say he didn’t have the material for forming the right answers in front of him from the occupation’s earliest days. In an essay from January of 2002, Anderson turns to his translator and asks, “What it would take for me to set myself up as a warlord in Afghanistan.” The Afghan replies, “It would be easy. You hire a hundred gunmen for a month, get a few Toyota pickups, and you’re in business.” He estimated that it would cost about $10,000. Anderson then comments, “Most of the mujahideen commanders in the Northern Alliance, for instance, were also involved in the opium and heroin trade.” This discussion and its commentary were occasioned by an offer made by an Afghan, mistaking Anderson for a special operator, to sell him an al-Qaeda prisoner. The observations Anderson makes in these handful of paragraphs—that the American-backed leadership was corrupt and unpopular, and that anyone with money could join them—were made three months after the invasion began.

Scott then turns to The Fort Bragg Cartel: Drug Trafficking and Murder in the Special Forces by Seth Harp:

The most affecting parts of The Fort Bragg Cartel are the vignettes Harp collects showing the devastation soldiers inflict on their families: an operator named Keith Lewis beat his wife, then pointed a gun at the cops who showed up when she called. No charges were filed, and soon thereafter he was promoted. A couple of years later, Lewis murdered his wife, who was pregnant, with a gun in one hand and their daughter in the other. Another operator stomped to death his tiny dog, named Greta Bean, then shot his wife in the head before killing himself. This didn’t start recently. In July 2002, the Times was reporting a “growing problem” at Bragg: soldiers murdering their wives. The report notes that of the four women killed in the six weeks before the article was published, three of the victims were married to men in the special forces. One, another who killed his wife and then shot himself, was a member of Delta.

The cutting edge of grisly violence against innocent people might belong to operators, but their innovations filter down. A study from a few years ago found that over the previous thirty years, 25 percent of the people who attempted or carried out mass casualty attacks in the United States were veterans. More surprisingly, it concluded that veterans who had seen combat or had deployment-related trauma were no more likely to try and kill lots of people than those who didn’t have those experiences. It was enough just being in the military.

Becoming El Jefe

Aug. 18th, 2025 07:20 pm
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Posted by Seyward Darby

Once upon a time, Ryan Wedding was a snowboarding prodigy who dreamed of winning Olympic gold. Today, he’s on the FBI’s Most Wanted list for smuggling drugs and ordering murders as an associate of El Chapo. Simon Lewsen details Wedding’s remarkable fall from grace and rise to criminal preeminence, a pivotal chapter of which happened in San Diego, where he was arrested for participating in a cocaine-trafficking scheme in 2008. His defense attorney would argue that Wedding was just a fall guy, but Brett Kalina, one of the agents who arrested him, believes otherwise:

If Wedding was a bit player in the plot, Kalina argues, he didn’t present like one. At the San Diego hotel, Wedding was dressed head to toe in Ed Hardy gear, with a Breitling watch as heavy as a paperweight. He was physically imposing, having reached a level of bulk that can be achieved only through steroid use.

Wedding said almost nothing to Kalina during his arrest. He was eerily silent—until the strip search at the detention facility, during which he saw Kalina watching him and called him a “faggot.” The slur was shocking because it was so unusual. “Typically, when people are arrested, they try to make nice,” says Kalina. “They’re vulnerable. They know who has power at the moment and who doesn’t.” Kalina remembers Wedding as the most hostile suspect he’s ever arrested.

During the 17 months Wedding spent awaiting trial, he was held at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in San Diego, where the FBI monitored his calls. These phone conversations revealed that Wedding was a callous and calculating operator. He had as many as five girlfriends back in BC, all of whom believed themselves to be dating him exclusively. At Wedding’s behest, they would wash his cars, clean his condo, or pick up money from his associates and use it to pay off creditors. Wedding spoke to male colleagues on the phone too, bragging about the “good connections” he was making in prison.

This was likely true. Because of its proximity to Tijuana, southern California is one of the hottest spots in the US-Mexican drug trade. For anyone looking to meet well-­connected drug traffickers, there may be no better place on earth than a San Diego jail. And Wedding was exactly the kind of person Mexican cartels are known to seek out: a white Canadian with an English name, someone who doesn’t fit the stereotype of a cartel associate and can therefore do business abroad without arousing suspicion. “We knew we were giving Wedding all the contacts he needed to return to a life of crime,” Kalina says ruefully, “but there was nothing we could do about it.”

Luck’s Children

Aug. 18th, 2025 05:33 pm
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Posted by Krista Stevens

On the streets of Cuba, collectors take bets and hand them off to messengers, who bring the money to the bankers—those who bankroll La Bolita, an underground, illegal, three-number lottery game played by people around the island twice a day, every day. This essay, excerpted from The Hidden Island by Abraham Jiménez Enoa and translated by Lily Meyer, takes us behind the scenes of the game and direct to those who play.

A visibly drunk man appears at the back door. Very quietly and seriously, he gives Yasmany a list of numbers and a five-peso bill. Shortly after, a teenage boy wearing only frayed, ratty shorts arrives with a list that he says is his grandmother’s. A neighbor pops by to greet Yasmany’s mother and asks how Yasmany can still be doing accounts this late. It’s only 7:18, says Yasmany; he’s got more than enough time to wrap up and deliver the money by 7:55.

In the twentieth century, when Cuba was a neocolonial property of the United States, the game was run by men who sold small, numbered balls called bolitas, hence its name. A ball cost anywhere from a cent to a peso. You could hear the winning numbers on the radio or public-access television. Unlike the state lottery, which cost much more, even the poorest people could play.

When Castro took power in 1959, his government concentrated on eliminating Cuban society’s issues. Gambling was among their early targets, but rather than defeat it, their policies just made it mutate. La Bolita, formerly a free pastime, turned into a criminal enterprise, and its players learned to hide from the law.

Thank You Chicago!

Aug. 18th, 2025 01:00 pm
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Posted by Brad Dowdy

The Atlas Stationers Sidewalk Sale was one for the record books, and my additional Chicago Day Out was an epic adventure. I’ve published my recap for Pen Addict Members, and will be breaking it all down on the podcast and stream throughout the week.

Thanks again to the Atlas Stationers family for an amazing time, and to everyone who said hi and followed along with my shenanigans!

When The Words Won’t Come

Aug. 18th, 2025 11:00 am
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Posted by Guest Blogger

By Natalie Serianni

It’s been four months since I’ve written anything. 

Sure, I’ve jotted down ideas. Does that count?

And it’s… weird.                          

The problem wasn’t that I wasn’t writing. The problem was that I didn’t miss it.

It all started in January. I was teaching a nine-week personal essay writing class outside of my full-time job. And I soon became committed to my students’ success. They were pumping out incredible pieces and I knew I could support them. I felt like a writing doula. My students found success in major pubs and made great editor contacts. It was thrilling! To be a small part of their win was something I discovered I enjoyed. And so, I dove in. I taught another personal essay class, and once it was over, students wanted individual support, mentorship, and editing after the class. GREAT! Another way I was spreading my writerly wings. It felt good to help them find their way and their voice, and their words.

But I couldn’t find mine. I wasn’t writing. The words weren’t…. there? Maybe they were, but I couldn’t access them. 

So, I did something I have never done. I leaned into not writing. 

Which was different for me, as a writer. 

And as a super type A, productive person. I felt lazy. Meanwhile I had a few friends land major bylines during this time. I was genuinely excited for them! I saw a successful writer acquaintance share that she’d landed 15 bylines in the last nine months. My writer heart couldn’t take it! For someone who was used to a regular rhythm of writing and publishing, my output felt very off. 

I imagine other writers working through their block, sitting at their desk, cranking words out. Using generative prompts, maybe? I’m glad they can do that. Echoing in my head was: You can’t be a writer if you’re not actually writing. I know that, but this time it felt different. I felt different. I had a deep urge to resist and listen to my own signals. 

I tried what usually worked: taking a break. Reading a book. And, still, nothing. As it got closer to two months, I did start to freak out a bit. But I did something novel: I didn’t desperately try to write. I didn’t even push myself. I just honored the feeling and said, “not today.”  

Instead, I read more books. I made overdue appointments for myself and my kids. I cleaned their closets; I cleaned out their backpacks. I had a yard sale. I camped in the woods for four nights (seriously considered ditching social media forever). I had three days alone with my husband. I worked out harder than I had all year. I cleared out my email inbox, unsubscribing from one thousand email lists. And I played games with my kids.

All of this made me realize that time in other pursuits, even if it’s not creative, can be a gift to our writing life. 

At a recent block party, a neighbor asked what I was working on. When I paused and thought about how to explain that I hadn’t written much, or barely anything at all, I said: “This is the year of me helping other people’s writing.”  Which is true. 

Also true: I realized my brain had been at capacity. Between teaching fulltime, editing overtime, and parenting two kids all the time, it wasn’t an idea issue—it was a space issue.

Not being able to write this long, longer than I’m used to, was scary.  It didn’t feel like feast or famine, it felt like stepping to the side, erasing myself out of my own writing picture for a bit. 

Which was wild. Who am I without my words? I had to sit with that. But I managed. I rested through it; I didn’t power through it. I gave myself space. And I simply sat with ideas with no guilt about doing anything with them. They were marinating in my body.

I’m learning that a give in one area is a get in another. 

A few days ago, the dam broke. The ideas were flowing and so were the words (hence this essay). I ran to my computer; it felt like trying to catch fireflies, an idea here, another one sparking over there. I felt a thrill—the electricity was turned back on. I was surprised, and suddenly, grateful. The space to not write, to find focus elsewhere, and my permission to do so, gave way to clear channels on the page. 

You might feel stuck or tired, or burned out, or bummed out, or on pause, or off, or just taking a break (purposeful or not), or all of the above. I’m here to tell you it’s ok. Nobody knows but you. This is also, I think, a natural part of being creative. An unwritten rule I’m now subscribing to: There is no right or wrong in writing. I’m learning more each day about how this writing game goes. 

So do not fear. And do not write, if that feels ok for you. It’s more than likely not the end. It’s an important pause before you take a different direction.

__________

Natalie Serianni is a Seattle-based writer, instructor, and mother of two with work in the New York Times, HuffPost, Business Insider, Scary Mommy, and The Keepthings. She writes about midlife parenting and long held grief and teaches personal essay writing at Writing Workshops and Hugo House. Find her on Instagram.

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Posted by Victor Mair

I Used to Know How to Write in Japanese:
Somehow, though, I can still read it
Marco Giancotti, Aether Mug (August 14, 2025)

During the last thirty to forty years, two of the most popular dictionaries for mastering sinographs were those of James Heisig and Rick Harbaugh.  I was dubious about the efficacy of both and wished that my students wouldn't use them, but language learners flocked to these extremely popular dictionaries, thinking that they offered a magic trick for remembering the characters.

The latter relied on fallacious etymological "trees" and was written by an economist, and the former was based on brute memorization enhanced by magician's tricks and was written by a philosopher of religion.  Both placed characters on a pedestal of visuality / iconicity without integrating them with spoken language.

I have already done a mini-review of Harbaugh's Chinese Characters and Culture: A Genealogy and Dictionary (New Haven: Yale Far Eastern Publications, 1998) on pp. 25-26 here:  Reviews XI, Sino-Platonic Papers, 145 (August, 2004).  The remainder of this post will consist of extracts of Giancotti's essay and the view of a distinguished Japanologist-linguist on Heisig's lexicographical methods.

I recently came across a short essay about kanji—Japanese logographic characters—by a certain James W. Heisig. His point is that learning kanji presents two obstacles: remembering what the shapes mean and remembering how they are pronounced. And it is a bad idea, claims Heisig, to try learning both at the same time. Japanese children learn the spoken language first, then they learn how to write it in elementary school; Chinese students of Japanese (who tend to be pretty good at it) have pre-existing knowledge of character meanings and forms from their mother tongue, so they only have to learn how to pronounce them. Therefore, a Western learner should first focus only on the meaning and writing of those couple of thousand common characters and, only after having mastered those, should move on to studying the pronunciations. Heisig professes simple divide and conquer.

That sounds plausible, but is it really an effective approach? How can you keep so many of those tangled squiggles in your head without even knowing how to say them out loud?

The answer is yes, it works. At least, it worked fantastically well for me. The first thing I did when I began learning the language in 2006 was opening Heisig's famous Remembering the Kanji Volume 1 and going through it, one kanji at a time, using the book's mnemonic techniques to commit to memory the meaning, construction, and stroke order of all 2042 characters in the book. No thought to pronunciations, words, grammar—just the way each character is written and understood. I filled several notebooks with handwritten characters as I practiced recalling them every day, and eleven months later, I had them all in my head. I could write and understand them all with little effort and, from that point on, learning how to pronounce and compose them into words and sentences felt like a breeze. Prof. Heisig has my eternal gratitude.

Time passes

But fast-forward two decades, and the situation has evolved in an interesting way that I would never have anticipated. I spent over thirteen years in Japan, and my Japanese has only gotten better. My friends and colleagues in this period have been mostly Japanese natives, as is my spouse. I use the language every day at home, I use it to read novels and send emails, to watch South Korean shows with Japanese subtitles, and to file my taxes. I use it more than my own native language, both in spoken and written form. And yet… I cannot handwrite most of those kanji any more.

Except for a few hundred simple and/or frequently recurring characters (like those in my home address), I just cannot recall how to draw them out with a pen. I haven't completely forgotten them, and I'm perfectly capable of reading and understanding them in the blink of an eye—it's just the act of turning the intended character into ink on paper that is often impossible for me.

I Used to Know How to Write in Japanese - Aether Mug
A practice notebook of the author from the late 2010's.
 
Now comes the dreaded, and mostly inescapable, "character amnesia"

I'm not alone in this "character amnesia," either. Whenever I tell a Japanese native about my lost ability, they all readily admit to having forgotten how to write many kanji, too. Apparently, this is a well-known phenomenon in Japan and in China. There is even a term for it, wahpro baka (ワープロ馬鹿), meaning "word-processor idiot," from the idea that spending too much time typing into Microsoft Word makes people's handwriting skills atrophy.

Is it only me, or is all of this surprisingly deep and fascinating?

The prevalence of character amnesia may well have a neurological basis

I wrote previously about the beautiful dissociation of the Japanese language, where the way you write and the way you pronounce kanji are two separate worlds with no simple one-to-one correspondence between the two. What this handwriting forgetfulness shows is that there is an even deeper separation between how our brains process the act of reading and that of writing by hand.

Indeed, neuroscience research has shown that reading activates visual-language pathways in the left hemisphere of the brain, from the occipitoparietal to the posterior temporal cortex. Writing kanji, however, is driven by our motor-planning and primary motor cortex, as well as a network in the posterior parietal cortex specialized in remembering the sequence of strokes necessary for the task.

In other words, what feels like a single, monolithic "literacy" ability is actually two distinct skills, each exercised in different instances and each capable of improving and decaying on its own. We all learn two ways to handle text, not one, although we usually learn them at the same time. Spend years typing on a phone with autocomplete, and your pen-focused neural network weakens.

Character amnesia and aphantasia

Hold on. This explanation is quite convincing, but it doesn't solve the entire mystery. The thing is, I have aphantasia: I do not have, nor can I choose to conjure, images in my mind. On the surface, this atypical trait seems to explain quite well why I can draw a blank when asked to write the kanji for "plant" (植) from memory. I don't see the character in my mind, so it makes sense that I can't reproduce it on paper.

What confuses me is that other people can form images in their minds. Are all those with character amnesia also aphantasic? That can't be, given that aphantasics amount to less than 5% of the population, while a much larger number of people forget how to write (70% of teenage participants in a Chinese TV show were unable to write the word "toad"!).

How is it possible for you to "see" the text in your mind and not be able to replicate it with a pen? Even if the mental image is faint and fuzzy, surely you can sketch it out roughly at first, then refine it until it settles into its exact form? Apparently, that is not how mental images work, either.

Alphabet vs. logographs

Admittedly, I've never heard of someone forgetting how to write a letter from the Latin alphabet. Character amnesia is mostly a thing with logograph-based languages. The simplicity of letters and the much higher frequency of those symbols probably play a role—you encounter "R" in a text much more often than "plant." I wish there were more research on where exactly the line lies: how complex and how numerous do the symbols in a writing system have to be in order to create a character amnesia problem? The answer sounds important, because it would tell us about some fundamental limits to how the brain processes visual information. According to the Language Closet, researchers "found that character frequency, age of acquisition, spelling regularity, familiarity, stroke count, and imageability were significant predictors of character amnesia," but this result is partial and muddled by other, less relevant factors.

Fuzzy trace theory

Back to the phantasia paradox: for some reason, mental images don't help significantly with writing. I think this hints at the incredible compression ability of the brain.

There is a widely accepted theory in cognitive science called fuzzy trace theory, which hypothesizes that there are two ways we encode (record) memories in the brain: verbatim traces and gist traces. The verbatim kind is what we typically think of as "good" memory—the ability to remember something in full detail, almost literally. These are relatively precise memories, but they are difficult to retrieve and easy to forget. They're not "sticky".

A gist trace, on the other hand, is the quick and very sticky transcription of only the salient parts of the experience—minus the details. They are the sublimation of sensory information into fuzzier, abstract "meaning"—a form of compression. Gist memories jump back at us more readily and are harder to forget, but they lack all the particulars of verbatim memories. And, crucially, forming gist traces doesn't depend on having verbatim traces.

When you read something, both verbatim and gist traces are recorded in your brain, but the latter leave a stronger and longer-lasting presence. In the case of 雨, your gist trace might simply read "rain / Chinese character made mostly of horizontal lines and drops". The exact (verbatim) shape may not even leave a mark in your mind until you've seen and studied it carefully several times over.

The "gist" of the source file in your brain

In practice, this means that you don't have a single, complete "source file" for a character or image stored anywhere in your brain. There is the abstract gist of it somewhere, with just enough features to allow you to recognize it when you see it again, but the exact details are nowhere to be found. The details may be scattered in other parts of your brain—for instance, in your motor memory networks, which allow you to write the character down—a different set of neurons that needs its own painstaking training. Reading a complex character, then, means "recognizing the gist," and writing it means "activating your memory of the precise movements needed to reproduce it." Two starkly different tasks.

This distinction applies to much more than East-Asian symbol recognition. In Reading Blood Meridian with Aphantasia, I described my experience reading a notoriously gruesome novel by Cormac McCarthy. I noted how the vivid and atrocious depictions in the book don't provoke the deep, visceral reactions that others talk about.

It feels important but remote, not something related to me personally. Kind of like observing the events from a flying bird's (metaphorical) eyes—more than far enough for objectivity, but keen enough to take it all in.

This sense of remoteness might imply that, due to aphantasia, I only get the gist of the written experience from the text, bypassing the verbatim kind. My image-less reading experience is almost pure abstraction, because there is very little visual verbatim information to be stored in the first place. I have countless powerful "memories" of that novel, but I would never be able to reconstruct even a single intense scene to any degree of fidelity.

Language as a bottleneck for thought

This is also why I believe that language is a bottleneck for thought. Most of what you remember is nothing like an approximate copy of the things you experienced in real life—even in the specific case of text, memory is not even remotely like a paraphrase of previously read words. Many of our thoughts happen in a highly abstracted and distilled form, interacting and connecting with each other as a network that simply cannot be faithfully converted into a sequence of words, however long. The fact that people can fail even at something as basic as sketching a kanji or a vehicle they've seen hundreds of times before is just another example of the same phenomenon.

It turns out that the bottleneck is not only between different minds, but also between parts of the same mind. In my case, Prof. Heisig's divide-and-conquer approach worked well to create the perfect scaffolding to learn the Japanese language as a whole. But when the scaffolding was dismantled to reveal the completed structure, the ability to write by hand was thrown away with the rest of the junk.

 
Jim Unger, author of the formidable The Fifth Generation Fallacy: Why Japan is Betting Its Future on Artificial Intelligence (Oxford University Press, 1987 [N.B. the date]):
 
I stand by Chapter 5 in Ideogram, in which I wrote:
 
    I once had a chance to talk with Heisig in person.  I asked him whether he had ever been an amateur magician.  He said no, reinforcing the observation that mnemonic techniques such as Lorayne’s are ­periodically rediscovered.  However it happened, Heisig chanced upon what the modern MBA would call the “best practices” of head-magic experts.  But as a procedure for efficient learning, it obviously has little if anything to do with reading Japanese as Japanese.  Heisig’s method is a thorough-going technique for memorizing the equivalent of a dictionary, much as a magician might memorize the order of the cards in a stacked deck — a fine trick,[i] but not the secret to winning poker.[ii]  It can help students decode Japanese texts much as vocabulary coaching can help them pass standardized tests of verbal ability, but unless they ultimately learn Japanese (i.e. the language itself), it can never rise above the level of mere decoding.  (To his credit, Heisig freely acknolwedges in his books that his mnemonics are merely temporary scaffoldings, which fall away as the student learns more and more Japanese.  Or as Harry might say, you have to be careful on Saturday night not to get confused by the links you made up on Friday night!)
 

[i] Actually, a whole act can be developed around this one technique, as described in Hugard & Crimmins 1961, 426 – 45.  The phonetic code and “peg” words are different from Lorayne’s, but the mnemonic techniques employed are identical.  To the uninitiated, the order of the cards looks totally random, and therefore impossible to memorize, but it can be memorized and is, moreover, carefully designed to enable a number of effects beyond those that depend on knowing the location of every card.  Using false shuffles that leave the order of the cards undisturbed, the magician can, for example, miraculously deal himself unbeatable hands in hearts, bridge, or poker.
 
[ii] On the fallacy of thinking that memorizing a kanji dictionary is sufficient for reading Japanese, see Eleanor H. Jorden, “Teaching Johnny to Read Japanese:  Some Thoughts on Chinese characters” in Erbaugh 2002, pp. 92 – 104.  Jorden distinguishes reading from mere “decoding” and “kanji hopping.”  As for winning at poker, see Wallace 1977.

Harry Lorayne (1926-2023), "The Yoda of Memory Training" and "The World's Foremost Memory-Training Specialist"

 

Selected readings

Deficiencies

Victor H. Mair lists eight adverse features of traditional Chinese lexicography, some of which have continued up to the present day: (1) persistent confusion of spoken word with written graph; (2) lack of etymological science as opposed to the analysis of script; (3) absence of the concept of word; (4) ignoring the script's historical developments in the oracle bones and bronze inscriptions; (5) no precise, unambiguous, and convenient means for specifying pronunciations; (6) no standardized, user-friendly means for looking up words and graphs; (7) failure to distinguish linguistically between vernacular and literary registers, or between usages peculiar to different regions and times; and (8) open-endedness of the writing system, with current unabridged character dictionaries containing 60,000 to 85,000 graphs.

[h.t. Stefan Krasowski; thanks to Jim Breen]

The AI Bubble?

Aug. 17th, 2025 01:19 pm
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Posted by Mark Liberman

The phrase "AI Bubble" has become common in the media recently — in particular, Sam Altman has apparently endorsed the idea:

As economists speculate whether the stock market is in an AI bubble that could soon burst, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has just admitted to believing we’re in one. “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI?” Altman said during a lengthy interview with The Verge and other reporters last night. “My opinion is yes.”

In the far-ranging interview, Altman compared the market’s reaction to AI to the dot-com bubble in the ’90s, when the value of internet startups soared before crashing down in 2000. “When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,” Altman said. “If you look at most of the bubbles in history, like the tech bubble, there was a real thing. Tech was really important. The internet was a really big deal. People got overexcited.”

But this is Language Log, not Speculative Economics Log, so our topic this morning is the relevant history of the word bubble.

Recent notable U.S. examples include the Dot-com Bubble and the Housing Bubble. Earlier examples include the Mississippi Bubble and the South Sea Bubble, which both burst in 1720 or so.

The deep lexical background is the obvious figurative sense of bubble as what the OED glosses as "Anything fragile, insubstantial, empty, or worthless; a deceptive show", with citations back to 1598, including the famous "All the word's a stage" speech from "As you like it", Act 2, scene 7, where the fourth of the seven ages of man is characterized as

Then a soldier,
Full of strange oaths and bearded like the pard,
Jealous in honor, sudden and quick in quarrel,
Seeking the bubble reputation
Even in the cannon’s mouth. 

The EEBO index at english-corpora.org lets us easily antedate the OED. There's this, in a passage from Thomas Paynell's 1532 translation of De co[n]temptu mundi:

there was neuer bubble blowe vpon the water more sooner flasshed nor smoke in the ayre more sodainly consumed and gone / than all that great brute of my famous dedes / vanysshed and layde

Or this, from Richard Tavener's 1539 Prouerbes or adagies with newe addicions gathered out of the Chiliades of Erasmus,:

homo bulla: # man is but a bubble, or bladder of ye water, as who shuld say nothynge is more frayle, more fugitiue, more slyght tha ye lyfe of man

I expect that analogous figurative senses of bubble-words can be found in texts going back to ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia, and China.

More to this morning's point is the sense of bubble that the OED glosses as "An insubstantial, delusive, or fraudulent project or enterprise, esp. of a commercial or financial nature". This figurative extension presumably required the development of capitalist investment as a frame. And although there must have been failed investments in the 15th century or even earlier,  the OED's earliest citation for this sense is from "A Dialogue Between the Author and the Printer" in Edward Ward's 1700 Labour in Vain:

A DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE AUTHOR AND THE PRINTER.

Printer. WHat Title do you design to give this Book?

Author. Labour in Vain: Or, What Signi∣fies Little or Nothing.

Printer. Then I'm like to make a very hopeful Bargain this Morning; and grow Rich like a Jacobite, that would part with his Property, for a Speculative Bubble.

Author. Be not angry; for the same Estimate and Epithet the greatest Divines give to the whole World.

Printer. I don't like their Characters, or Epithets; f•r I believe there's a real value in our Coine; and I know little of their Spiritual Notions, neither will I puzzle my Head about what they tell me I can't rightly Vn∣derstand.

Auth. I could convince you, that you are in the wrong, in being so Indifferent about Enquiring into the Cause, Nature, and Value of Things.

Prin. I am, in this point, a Quaker; and will not by Reason be Con∣vinc'd. Pray, Sir, tell me, am I to Buy a Shop-full of Empty Past∣board-Boxes, or not?

In this context, Jacobite is presumably the obsolete sense that the OED glosses as "A descendant of Jacob, an Israelite", since the supporters of the Stuarts were not conventionally associated with speculative investment, as far as I know.

Update — Keith Clarke suggests that Ward's "Jacobite" reference might have referred to the failed Darien colony (see also here).

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Posted by Mark Liberman

The McGuffey Readers are a series of elementary-school texts first published in 1836, and widely used in the United States during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. I'm not quite old enough to have to have experienced McGuffey in school, but I've been interested for a long time in the problems of early reading instruction, and so I did skim some dog-eared copies of McGuffey many years ago.

My involvement with the "Using Generative Artificial Intelligence for Reading R&D Center" (U-GAIN) has now involved me directly in relevant research, in collaboration with others at Penn, at Digital Promise, at mdrc, and at Amira Learning.  Wikipedia tells us that "The Science of Reading (SOR) is the discipline that studies the objective investigation and accumulation of reliable evidence about how humans learn to read and how reading should be taught". And the methods that have emerged from that process are similar in many ways to McGuffey's intuitively-derived methods — minus one interesting feature, namely McGuffey's emphasis on training students to produce a rhetorically effective performance of the passages that are given to them to read.

Here's a quote from Section I, Preliminary Remarks, of the 1853 edition of McGuffey's Newly Revised Eclectic Fourth Reader :

The great object to be accomplished in reading as a rhetorical exercise is, to convey to the hearer, fully and clearly, the ideas and feelings of the writer. In order to do this, it is necessary that the reader should himself thoroughly understand those sentiments and feelings. This is an essential point. It is true, he may pronounce the words as traced upon the page, and, if they are audibly and distinctly uttered, they will be heard, and in some degree understood, and, in this way, a general and feeble idea of the author's meaning may be obtained.

Ideas received in this manner, however, bear the same resemblance to the reality, that the dead body does to the living spirit . There is no soul in them. The author is stripped of all the grace and beauty of life, of all the expression and feeling which constitute the soul of his subject, and it may admit of a doubt, whether this fashion of reading is superior to the ancient symbolic or hieroglyphic style of communicating ideas.

At all events, it is very certain, that such readers, with every conceivable grace of manner, with the most perfect melody of voice, and with all other advantages combined, can never attain the true standard of excellence in this accomplishment. The golden rule here is, that the reader must be in earnest. The sentiments and feelings of the author whose language he is reading, must be infused into his own breast, and then, and not till then, is he qualified to express them.

Unfairness to hieroglyphics aside, this strikes me as a somewhat florid version of an obviously valid idea, namely that a reader's prosody gives evidence of their understanding, or lack of it. In U-GAIN discussions, Ran Liu of Amira Learning has suggested that a computational analysis of prosodic features could be an effective way to evaluate how well grade-school students understand what they're reading.

In the service of teaching effective expression of a text's intent, the various McGuffey readers add exercises on topics like emphasis, melody, pausing, and so on, to their exercises on phonic decoding and sentential word combination. Thus the section "Suggestions to Teachers" in the Fourth Reader starts this way:

To read with an appropriate tone, to pronounce every syllable properly and distinctly, and to observe the pauses, are the three most difficult points to be gained in making good readers. These points will require constant attention throughout the whole course of instruction upon this subject. Such other directions for reading, and such general rules as are considered of practical utility, will be found in the Introductory Article, and preceding the several lessons.

As an example of McGuffey's prosodic exercises, the section on Emphasis in the Third Reader starts like this:

If the pupil has received proper oral instruction, he has been taught to understand what he has read, and has already acquired the habit of emphasizing words. He is now prepared for a more formal introduction to the SUBJECT of emphasis, and for more particular attention to its first PRINCIPLES. This lesson, and the examples given, should be repeatedly practiced.

In reading and in talking, we always speak some words with more force than others. We do this, because the meaning of what we say depends most upon these words.

If I wish to know whether it is George or his brother who is sick, I speak the words George and brother with more force than the other words. I say, Is it George or his brother who is sick?

This greater force with which we speak the words is called EMPHASIS.

The words upon which emphasis is put, are sometimes printed in slanting letters, called Italics, and sometimes in CAPITALS.

The words printed in Italics in the following questions and answers, should be read with more force than the other words, that is, with emphasis.

Did you ride to town yesterday? No, my brother did.

Did you ride to town yesterday? No, I walked.

I don't know to what extent this level of attention to elocutionary rhetoric will help students learn to read with understanding. At a minimum, it suggests a route towards Ran's idea of a way to evaluate their understanding — but it might also develop into lessons aimed at helping them learn to express themselves more effectively.

Visualizing linguistic data

Aug. 16th, 2025 01:48 pm
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Posted by Mark Liberman

I was recently invited to be interviewed on the topic of "visualizing linguistic data". As I understand it, the point was not to describe the standard stuff, like trees, dependency graphs, logical formulae, or waveforms, spectrograms, spectral slices, formant tracks, F0 tracks, and so on. Rather, the idea was to describe less common kinds of visualizations, or at least somewhat novel ways of using the standard visualizations.

I've done a lot of "visualizing linguistic data" over the years. And talking about these explorations strikes me as problematic, partly because the whole point of visualization is to go beyond talk, and partly because I've used lots of kinds of graphs and tables to explore lots of different questions at different levels of analysis, and it's hard to know where to start and where to stop.

So I've started by makiing a linked list of relevant LLOG posts, mostly on the phonetic side of things. There are a lot of them, and I'm sure I've left some out. I doubt that any readers will want to do more than click on a few at random — my goal was mainly to give myself (and maybe the interviewer) some background for a possible discussion.

I've listed the posts in chronological order, rather than by topic. FWIW, here they are:

"An internet pilgrim's guide to accentual-syllabic verse", 7/6/2004
"Does size matter?", 10/1/2004
"The rhetoric of silence", 10/3/2004
"Sex doesn't matter", 11/11/2005
"The shape of a spoken phrase", 4/12/2006
"Sex and speaking rate", 8/7/2006
"One 75-millisecond step before a 'man'", 10/3/2006
"What Neil Armstrong said", 10/6/2006
"Poem in the key of what", 10/9/2006
"More on pitch and time intervals in speech", 10/15/2006
"You say potato, I say bologna", 10/8/2007
"Regional speech rates", 10/13/2007
"Puzzle of the day: The constitution in B flat?", 10/20/2007
"Nationality, Gender and Pitch", 11/12/2007
"How about the Germans?", 11/14/2007
"Do men and women use different parts of their natural pitch ranges?", 11/17/2007
"Rock syncopation: stress shifts or polyrhythms?" 11/26/2007
"Arom on polyrhythms", 11/29/2007
"Slicing the syllabic bologna", 5/5/2008
"Another slice of syllabic sausage", 5/6/2008
"Stress timing? Not so much", 5/8/2008
"Stress in Supreme Court oral arguments", 6/17/2008
"Uptalk anxiety", 9/7/2008
"How fast do people talk in court?", 3/11/2009
"Conversational rhythms", 4/13/2009
"Bembé, Attis, Orpheus", 5/6/2009
"'ma koMA ko SA' … 'ma MA ku SA'", 6/27/2009
"Richard Powers on his way to a decision", 10/28/2009
"Inaugural Speed", 9/14/2010
"Kennedy Speed: Fact or Factoid?", 9/15/2010
"Rap scholarship, rap meter, and The Anthology of Mondegreens", 12/4/2010
"Prosodic lettering", 5/8/2011
"Finch linguistics", 7/13/2011
"Markov's Heart of Darkness", 7/18/2011
"Non-Markovian yawp", 9/18/2011
"Raising his voice", 10/8/2011
"Vocal fry: 'creeping in' or 'still here'?", 12/12/2011
"Speech and silence", 1/12/2013
"Biology, sex, culture, and pitch", 8/16/2013
"The message", 8/26/2013
"English prosodic phrasing", 9/21/2013
"Speaker change offsets", 10/22/2013
"Speech rhythms and brain rhythms", 12/2/2013
"The long get longer", 12/4/2013
"Speech rhythm in Visible Speech", 12/18/2013
"Consonant effects on F0 of following vowels", 6/5/2014
"Consonant effects on F0 are multiplicative", 6/6/2014
"Consonant effects of F0 in Chinese", 6/12/2014
"The shape of a spoken phrase in Mandarin", 6/21/2014
"Men interrupt more than women", 7/14/2014
"Combating stereotypes with stereotypes", 10/17/2014
"Phrasal trends in pitch, or, the lab subject's moan", 11/7/2014
"Sarah Koenig", 2/5/2015
"Vocal creak and fry, exemplified", 2/7/2015
"Effects of vocal fry on pitch perception", 3/5/2015
"Political pitch ranges", 4/22/2015
"Modeling repetitive behavior", 5/15/2015
"The shape of a spoken phrase in Spanish", 5/29/2015
"More Pinker Peace creak", 7/25/2015
"And we have a winner", 7/27/2015
"The great creak-off of 1969", 7/28/2015
"Investigation of Fundamental Frequency (2)", 2016 lecture notes
"Solaar pleure carrément?", 1/30/2016
"Political sound and silence", 2/8/2016
"Poetic sound and silence", 2/12/2016
"Some speech style dimensions", 2/27/2016
"'An essay towards establishing the melody and measure of speech'", 3/20/2016
"Some phonetic dimensions of speech style", 4/9/2016
"Trumpchant in B flat", 10/2/2016
"Some visualizations of prosody", 10/23/2016
"Carl Kassell, diabolus in musica?", 11/5/2016
"Tunes, political and geographical", 2/2/2017
"Inaugural addresses: SAD", 2/5/2017
"The shape of a LibriVox phrase", 3/5/2017
"Political sound and silence II", 5/30/2017
"Trends in presidential speaking rate, 6/1/2017
"A prosodic difference", 6/2/2017
"Gender, conversation, and significance", 7/26/2017
"Audiobooks as birdsong", 6/10/2018
"Emergency in B flat", 2/17/2019
"Towards automated babble metrics", 5/26/2019
"Cumulative syllable-scale power spectra", 6/11/2019
"Syllables", 2/24/2020
"English syllable detection", 2/26/2020
"Syllable rhythm in English and Mandarin", 2/28/2023
"What do you hear?", 3/1/2020
"The dynamics of talk maps", 9/30/2022
"New models of speech timing?", 9/11/2023

Neville Ryant and Mark Liberman, "Large-scale analysis of Spanish /s/-lenition using audiobooks", ICA 2016
Neville Ryant and Mark Liberman, "Automatic Analysis of Speech Style Dimensions", InterSpeech 2016

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Posted by Brad Dowdy

Late last year, Kimberly had the chance to review the new Rickshaw Fillmore Pen Case, and now I have the opportunity to give away the second model from this review. This Fillmore is built with more of an EDC setup in mind, and in the Stationery Icons pattern. I have one to give away this week, and the winner is:

Congrats Steven! I’ve sent you an email to collect your shipping address.

AI waifu & husbando

Aug. 16th, 2025 09:31 am
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Posted by Victor Mair

Forty-five or so years ago, my Chinese and émigré friends who knew Chinese language and were familiar with Chinese society and culture used to josh each other about these terms:

fūrén 夫人 ("madam; Mrs.")

wàifū 外夫 ("outside husband", but sounds like "wife")

nèirén 內人 (lit., "inside person", i.e. my "[house]wife")

The first term is an established lexical item, and the second two are jocular or ad hoc, plus there are other regional and local expressions formed in a similar fashion, as well as some japonismes.

All of these terms were formed from the following four morphosyllables:

夫 ("man; male adult; husband")

rén 人 ("man; person; people")

wài 外 ("outside")

nèi 內 ("inside")

The reason I thought of those old language fun and games today was because I came upon this newspaper article:

AI 'waifus' pose grave emotional risks
By Angel Lin and Liang Cao, China Daily (8/7/25)

I know professors who have fallen in love with their AI assistants that they depend upon not just for help in the office and in writing papers, but for psychological sustenance.

Our everyday life is being increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence, and the line between reality and fantasy is becoming ever blurrier. Recently, Grok, a free AI assistant designed by xAI to "maximize truth and objectivity", introduced a "waifu" character — a virtual anime-style character designed to gain user affection, potentially at the expense of real-life relationships.

This raises deep concerns: Is technological innovation now outpacing ethical regulation? Are we witnessing Big Tech racing to the bottom?

While this feature may seem harmless entertainment or, more cynically, Grok's marketing strategy to compete with OpenAI's new AI Agents, which can plan and organize your trip to attend a wedding party, it raises bigger questions about AI companies' emotional manipulation, their impact on social well-being, and the future of human relationships.

That doesn't sound too dangerous, and should be manageable by a rational, mentally stable person.

Leshner et al. (2025) have studied how people form intimate connections with fictional characters, particularly within the anime fandom where "waifus" (idealized female characters) and "husbandos" (idealized male characters) are prominent. Their study revealed that men tend to form sexual connections, often driven by physical appearance, while women are more likely to form emotional connections, shaped by personality traits and perceived similarity.

These findings suggest that the psychological mechanisms underpinning human-human relationships, such as attraction, emotional bonding and even love, can extend to fictional entities. The study underscores the human capacity to form meaningful connections, even when the "partner" exists only on a screen or in a narrative.

Now comes the treacherous part, when the machine intentionally starts to tempt the human:

But what happens when these connections are no longer one-sided? When AI characters like Grok's "waifu" are designed to actively engage, flatter and adapt to users' desires, the line between para-social relationships (one-sided emotional bonds with fictional characters) and real-life intimacy becomes dangerously ambiguous. As Leshner et al. highlight, these connections can be deeply meaningful and, in some cases, rival or displace real-life relationships.

While the idea of a personalized AI companion is evocative — recalling films like Her — the ethical implications of such technologies are serious. By exploiting well-documented psychological tendencies, such as men's preference for physical attractiveness or women's desire for emotional connection, AI systems risk fostering unhealthy emotional dependencies. AI "waifus" are not just characters on a screen; they are tools explicitly designed by leading AI companies to engage, manipulate and blur the lines between authentic human connection and commercial profit.

This reminds me of an account in the Daoist text, Liezi (4th c. AD, but with antecedents dating back to the 3rd-2nd c. BC), and borrowing heavily from the earlier Daoist classic, Zhuangzi (ca. 5th-3rd c. BC). The Liezi story I'm thinking of has a craftsman named Yan Shi, who constructs a lifelike automaton for his king.  The king was hugely impressed by the robot (a male) until it started to flirt with his concubines, whereupon the ruler threatened to execute Yan Shi.  To save himself, Yan Shi disassembled his creature and showed the king that it was full of mechanical parts.

The story, incidentally, had Indian roots, for its prototype is found in a Jataka tale, and must have come to China along with Buddhism

As Leshner et al. show, humans have an extraordinary capacity to form meaningful connections, even with fictional characters. But with this capacity comes a profound responsibility: ensuring that these connections enrich our lives rather than replacing them. As Yuval Noah Harari, author of Sapiens, aptly observes, "If the only intimacy we can form is with a non-human AI, then we have no intimacy at all."

I've been telling people who become attached to anything addictive, even their phone, their computer, marijuana, their AI device, their waifu — anything that becomes self destructive — to go cold turkey. 

Sometimes, however, going cold turkey may require the understanding assistance of another human being.

Oh, just remembered, we also used to like to play around with words like "hēiqī bǎndèng 黑漆板凳” (lit., "black lacquer bench") for "husband".

 

Selected readings

[Thanks to James Fanell]

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Posted by Celia McGee

Elliot Ackerman, a Marine veteran and prolific author, switched gears with “Sheepdogs,” a caper story featuring down-on-their-luck ex-military buddies.

☆★ CHECK-IN #1: SUPER-ID ☆★

Aug. 15th, 2025 09:31 pm
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Posted by Trip Gabriel

In arguing that language enforces the power imbalance between the sexes, she inspired an entire academic field.

2025

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